Detroit Lions (7-8) vs. Chicago Bears (3-12)
The coaches: Lions —Dan Campbell (15-28-1overall, 10-21-1with Lions); Bears — Matt Eberflus (3-12 overall, 3-12 with Bears).
Last game: Lions lost to Carolina Panthers, 37-23; Bears lost to Buffalo Bills, 35-13.
Last meeting: Nov. 13, 2022: Lions won, 31-10.
BIGGEST GOAL:If Lions want to win, defense must stop Bears' 'X-factor,' QB Justin Fields
Key matchups
Lions pass rush vs. Bears QB Justin Fields: The Lions have failed to stop three dual-threat quarterbacks this season: Jalen Hurts in Week 1, Geno Smith in Week 4 and Fields in Week 10. In that matchup, Fields shredded the Lions with his arm and legs. He completed 12 of 20 passes for 167 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, adding 13 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, Fields has been somewhat contained on the ground and is coming off an 11-yard rushing performance against the Buffalo Bills, who focused on keeping him in the pocket. Likewise, the Lions — coming off their worst defensive showing —would be wise to apply excess pressure and force Fields to beat them with his arm. Still, that component of his game can be dangerous.
FRIDAY'S NOTEBOOK:Lions' DeShon Elliott won't play vs. Bears; Ifeatu Melifonwu to start again
THURSDAY'S NOTEBOOK:Lions rookie Jameson Williams trusting 'patience' in search of more targets
Lions S Kerby Joseph vs. Bears TE Cole Kmet: Joseph earned NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for a breakout performance in Week 9, but against the Bears in Week 10, he played arguably the worst game of his young career. His struggles, in part, sparked Kmet's emergence as a consistent pass-catching weapon in the Bears' offense. From Week 10-16, the tight end hauled in 25 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Both touchdowns were scored against Joseph. For the first score, Kmet easily slipped past Joseph for a 6-yard touchdown in the third quarter. About five minutes later, Joseph failed to stay in coverage and left Kmet wide open for a 50-yard touchdown. The Lions are low on reliable safeties and need Joseph at his best if they want to win.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Bears run defense
Earlier this season, the Lions would have a clear edge in this category. But D'Andre Swift remains bothered by injuries and has carried the ball 18 times in the past three games, while lead running back Jamaal Williams —known for his physicality — has seen his success drop off in recent weeks, racking up 81 yards (without a touchdown) on 36 carries during the same three games. Fellow running back Justin Jackson will be in the rotation, too.
The good news: The Bears rank 30th against the run this season, allowing 151.2 yards per game. They also rank 27th in yards per carry (4.9) and 32nd in rushing touchdowns (27). Last week, the Bills rushed 31 times for 254 yards and three touchdowns.
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In last Saturday's loss, the Lions posted 45 yards on 17 carries for a season-low 2.6 yards per carry. They have averaged 3.7 yards per carry in the past eight games but ran with more authority earlier in the season. The talent required for a breakthrough will be on the field, but overall efficiency in the run game is the key to unlocking an improvement. Facing the Bears' woeful defense, it's the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Edge: Lions.
Lions pass offense vs. Bears pass defense
Quarterback Jared Goff has been electric in the past seven games, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception. In the first eight games, he tossed 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Lions' offense runs through Goff and is enhanced by a healthy group of wide receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond.
The offense ranks fifth in points per game (26.1), fourth yards per game (375.5) and eighth in passing yards per game (254.9). With healthy receivers, Goff seems to be more confident in his pursuit of big plays. Several deep passes have been successful over the past three weeks, especially to Chark.
Despite a poor record, the Bears are experiencing sneaky success in the takeaways department, forcing six turnovers in the past two games. Chicago's passing defense ranks 12th, allowing 209.1 yards per game. Two names to watch: safety Jaquan Brisker and cornerback Kyler Gordon. But the Bears' secondary is young and inexperienced, as safety Eddie Jackson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 12, meaning Goff should have the advantage. Edge: Lions.
Bears run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Bears pace the NFL in two rushing categories: attempts per game (34.3) and yards per game (179.7). They're tied atop the leaderboard with the Bills at 5.3 yards per carry and rank fifth with 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game. Fields presents the toughest challenge, given his mobility, but he is accompanied by running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert.
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Fields leads all NFL quarterbacks in rushing yards (and he's the third quarterback in history to surpass the 1,000-yard mark in a single season), but he hasn't reached 100 rushing yards since Week 10 against the Lions. He has been contained to 85 yards, 71 yards, 95 yards and 11 yards in his past four games.
The Lions, meanwhile, allowed 320 rushing yards in Week 16 to the Panthers, anchored by running backs D'Onta Foreman (165 yards) and Chuba Hubbard (125 yards). The run defense ranks 28th at 145.9 yards per game but showed signs of a better product before running into the Panthers. Keep in mind, Fields and the Bears will be tougher to stop than the Panthers, even as the Lions tweak their scheme. This matchup is one reason to be concerned. Edge: Bears.
Bears pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
While Fields can run, his passing game isn't as polished. He completes 62.3% of his passes, has topped 200 yards twice this season and has thrown 10 interceptions compared to 16 touchdowns. His top wide receiver, Darnell Mooney, sustained a season-ending ankle injury in late November, leaving Chase Claypool — acquired before the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Steelers —as the top target in the passing game.
But Claypool is coming back from an knee injury and hasn't played since early December. Equanimeous St. Brown, the brother of Amon-Ra St. Brown, missed Week 16 due to a brain injury but has been cleared to play at Ford Field. Kmet, of course, is Fields' favorite target in the red zone.
The Lions' defense struggles against the pass —allowing 264.1 yards per game, which ranks 30th —but enters a favorable matchup. The Lions will be without safety DeShon Elliott for the second game in a row, leaving Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu as the starting safeties. Jeff Okudah, benched in the second half against the Panthers, will start alongside Jerry Jacobs at the cornerback positions, with Will Harris handling nickel duties. Edge: Lions.
MONDAY'S NOTEBOOK:Lions place emphasis on 'efficiency' in hopes of 'getting our run game back'
Special teams
Michael Badgley is 26-for-26 on extra points and 20-for-23 on field goals this season. The Lions signed him to the practice squad in early October, one day after the Bears released him, and then elevated him to the 53-man roster. Of his three missed field goals, two of them occurred in the past three games: a 47-yard attempt against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 and a 54-yard attempt against the New York Jets in Week 15.
On the other side, Cairo Santos is 25-for-30 on extra points and 20-for-22 on field goals. He has connected on 4 of 5 attempts from beyond 50 yards this season and has missed only one field goal in his career when playing at indoor stadiums. In Week 10, though, Santos missed a crucial extra point in the fourth quarter. His mistake allowed the Lions to complete their comeback and win by one point. Edge: Bears.
Prediction
Here's what matters most: The Lions have something to play for in a postseason berth, whereas the Bears trail the Houston Texas by a half-game in the race for the No. 1 overall pick. An embarrassing loss to the Panthers shouldn't carry over into Sunday's game, as the Lions were adamant about their ability to manage adversity and respond accordingly. Fields presents a problem for any defense, but if the Lions can keep him from making big plays, especially on the ground, the Bears' offense isn't versatile enough to adjust. And Goff has put the Lions' offense on cruise control by avoiding turnovers. Expect a lot of points, and a Lions victory in the final game at Ford Field. The pick: Lions 37, Bears 31.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter@EvanPetzold.
